The problem here is that this situation is being handled by epidemiologists – who are focused solely on minimizing health risk and blind to economic risk – instead of true leaders. Obviously, the best course for minimizing immediate health risk is to shut everything down; I agree with you in that sense. I am simply venturing that we will destroy our economies in the process, and it is not worth it.
I’ve seen a lot of “flatten the curve” analysis. Show me one analysis of the economic consequences of the draconian measures being implemented to flatten the curve. Don’t you think those should be considered. Who is considering them? Our new doctor in chief clearly is not.
That was about the only thing left at Trader Joe’s the other day. My wife just hit Stater Bros., and their meat case is completely empty. Bleach is sold out, too. Luckily, they still have corned beef.
Upthread I mentioned the need to check in on those who are older, isolated, and/or dealing with health challenges. This is critical.
Several people in our neighborhood are putting together a list of people requiring assistance and people offering to help (errands, grocery shopping, dog-walking, etc.). Many older people are confused, fearful, reluctant to ask for assistance - reach out, safely, to your neighbors and let them know they are not forgotten, they are not alone.
I also would strongly encourage donations (money, food stuffs - call and ask what they need) to food banks (there will be a growing need as the economy worsens - and it will, unfortunately, do so), as well as to organizations that serve the homeless individuals in the community.
Those two groups - the homeless and people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck - are going to experience the worst of the impact.
Please also consider donations of money/pet food to local shelters and rescue organizations: donations have been down for several months and needs are growing … and we’re now hitting puppy/kitten season, too.
Order takeout, buy gift cards, support restaurants, practice social distancing to slow the spread/flatten the curve and save lives - and take care of each other.
A kosher restaurant in my neighborhood was ordered to close for 2 weeks. Just an FYI. Not sure where the letter or order came from and if this was received by any other Los Angeles restaurant. I was at Cannabis Cafe last night and it was poppin’. I dropped off a cake at valet (my family has a bakery). I didn’t want to go inside so the head chef picked the cake up from my car. I think younger people think they are immune (with weed) or they don’t watch the news or don’t care for social distancing?! Some other restaurants I passed by in Hollywood looked dead.
These groups (plus the elderly) are the groups I worry most about, too. Many people need to take the bus to go to work (assuming there’s still a job to go to), and there’s really no way they can distance themselves from others.
They’re less likely to have sick leave and adequate healthcare/insurance (and have larger copays or only catastrophic coverage), likely lack financial resources to buy foodstuffs for a quarantine period, more likely to work in the service sector do mpre exposure to potential carriers … they’re already on the brink. And they’re a large percent of the population.
Grocery stores are still open in France and Italy. I figure the panic buying mania should be over in a few days.
I’m not saying it’s a good idea, but if the people in high-risk groups practice social distancing, and people in low-risk groups don’t, that would move things toward herd immunity without a high mortality rate.
confirmed cases in minnesota have gone up from 5 to 35 in three days. and there are still very few people being tested; mostly those with foreign travel or connection to another confirmed case. in the meantime 3 of the latest cases are confirmed community spread.
The current problem in the US comes from too many economists being involved from the beginning instead of the right scientists. Your assumption of letting the virus spread through the people assumes that it will lead to herd immunity which is not so likely as corona virus tend to mutate quite frequently and so it is quite likely that instead of creating herd immunity with your approach we will have much sooner a second or third wave of the virus with a different age profile of who will die most likely (similar to the Spanish Flu) and that would lead to much bigger economic consequences than flattening the curve approaches - we need to buy us time to not overload the health system worldwide (as it is happening now in Italy) and to get a vaccine which will lessen the impact of the virus in future waves (but there is a reasonable chance that it will be impossible to get a vaccine in the next 18-24 months. All other approaches beside flattening the curve will have much deeper economic impact for countries and the whole world
Unfortunately you need for herd immunity a very high percentage of people getting immune which not so likely as corona virus tends to mutate give frequently - you might be immune in the first wave but not any longer in the second one 6 months later. (Also why flu vaccine gives you quite limited protection and there would be no herd immunity even if >90% would get flu vaccine in a year.
So, everyone is listening to the confirmed cases number and feeling that hey it’s still manageable.
The fact is this thing is so much more widespread than anyone thinks.
Once these tests are readily available these confirmed case numbers are going to go insanely high.
Example: my nephew in NYC had EVERY one of the symptoms. Went to a hospital for his shortness of breath and was told he was too young to test, they have to ration tests. But the doctor is sure he has COVID-19.
Sent home, where is doing the basics, quarantined, on the mend, and feeling better.
The problem is if someone’s case ISN’T confirmed, they may be likely to go to work, like in those restaurants we love.
Picked up large box of shmura Matzoh at Ralphs on Olympic and Barrington. I’m sure they will be gone soon and I’m sure there were some left only because they were $20 for the box. No paper goods in the store and many of the frozen foods and other food aisles were picked very dry.
I can’t get toilet paper for a housebound elderly relative, so I have been ordering baby wipes on Amazon and I notice I can only get the expensive “bougie” brands on Amazon - the cheap stuff goes quicker. I wish people would stop hoarding toilet paper. I don’t have any myself because I didn’t stock up before the madness and last night someone in the healthcare industry who apparently has connections that ordinary people don’t have offered to “hook me up” with some, but I said I would make do with Kleenex (which I was able to find a couple of day ago) for the time being.
