I hadn’t run any of the math, so the numbers in your example are interesting – and especially germane in SD County because the positivity rate here is not far (at the moment) from the value you chose.
And yes, no doubt Quest has done their homework on this. (Well, at least I hope so.)
"The patchwork of out-of-phase, state-mandated controls has not worked in our country.
Based on all of the scientific and engineering knowledge available at this time, I am very strongly recommending that the governments of all states simultaneously institute the following state-wide policy as of Aug 1, 2020:
Uniformly implement the science and engineering-based feedback controls that I and other epidemiologists and engineers have designed, evaluated, and endorsed. These regard highly flexible and responsive obligatory social controls enacted to control aggregate physical distancing; airborne transmission; movement and gatherings; and business operations. These measures will lead to our recovery in health and social-economic stability in the shortest amount of time. Specific details will follow shortly
Discontinue all state- and locally-mandated controls in favor of the remedies that my Institute will specifically prescribe, in order to maintain uniformity and stability throughout the country.
Adhere to all of all specific updates from our Institute which could be announced as frequently as twice a week; be watchful for these
Taking this unified nation-wide action now will reduce total US deaths from the covid and shorten the time for our personal, social, and economic recovery. I’m sure all will participate and cooperate because we all want this to calm down."
I wish our Covid Doctor in Chief would say something more specific like that, rather than just “wear a mask” and “wash your hands” and stand six feet apart. And in effect, “a vaccine in January is hopeful but only maybe possible. I hope. Cautiously.” And “yeah, things are gonna get worse”. Yada, yada, yada…
Either you are not really aware how politics work here in the US or you still haven’t understood that your approach would be actually worse than what is already happening
Hard to believe, looking back, that I thought this was possible, even probable, on Feb. 24.
I’d been comparing covid to other widespread epidemics that have lasted just a couple of months, including the two-month duration of the largest wave of the Spanish flu.
How naïve of me, thinking back. Masks hadn’t been discussed very much at all at that point and I was very surprised to see someone wearing one. And I’d never worn one at any time before in my entire life.
Even through childhood with things like measles, polio, chickenpox, mumps, flu, tetanus, whooping cough going around.
Not to mention all of the more recent pandemics.
Now it feels like Feb. 24 was in a different life and a different lifetime…
Back in January and February, no one at any level of government or in any health institute was recommending masks. We had no leadership or foresight at all at the federal level. (We still don’t, actually.) When we finally had local government mandates, I for one, followed all of them and still do. At first, none of us, individually, had a clue as to what to do or not to do. I cut way back on my normally frequent restaurant patronage at the time, but that was about all.
I feel that the decision was more of a political one since there were mass shortages as it was for even health professionals so asking 328 million people to fetch masks when there was none wasn’t practical.
It was certainly true that the public was being asked not to buy N95 masks due to their critical need in healthcare settings. I recall that when it started to look like we were all going to be asked to wear masks, they were indeed very hard to find. I bought my first five paper ones at a liquor store – for $10 – and at least had those on hand when we were finally asked to wear face coverings. I can’t even recall exactly when that was – seems like forever ago.
"You can catch the flu when someone near you coughs or sneezes. Or, if you touch something the virus is on, like Ellen and Jack’s phone or doorknob, and then touch your nose or mouth, you could catch the flu . The flu virus can live on a surface like a book or doorknob for a number of hours."
The frontline workers in NYC were just wearing PPE for shits and giggles to treat Covid patients
Cute kids (and a dramatic photo), but masks were never normally worn for routine medical exams or procedures. Surgeons wear masks as do those treating infectious or potentially infectious patients. What the NIH says is true, of course, but it doesn’t at all negate the quote in my post that you responded to.
OK, and dentists too. (BTW, I note that in the photo you posted, the guy doesn’t have his nose covered.)
The eventual recommendation to wear masks was highly unusual. We’ve never been asked as an entire nation, or by state or local government during flu season each year to wear masks. Just to follow the common-sense steps in the NIH quote that you posted earlier. It’s not rocket science or theoretical physics. Somehow I’ve survived through almost eight decades of flu (and several other communicable diseases) and the government has never before recommended that everyone wear masks. That’s one reason there was a major shortage when our government finally did ask everyone to wear one for the covid: We had no personal reserves, no national or local stockpile, and inadequate domestic manufacturing capability. The government has recommended getting a flu shot every year (and vaccinations for other diseases as necessary), which I’ve done for as long as I can remember (although 50% of the rest of the US population declines to do so, year after year).
Well, it would in fact be helpful if when stranded in the wild I could reach someone in government on my cell phone, and they gave me very specific suggestions. Right away. Otherwise I’d have to try to remember what they taught us in Cub Scouts.
