We were going to fly 11 hours to Europe and then to a cruise. Now we’re going off in our RV to Idaho and Montana (so far not infected) and cook like crazy. Gotta find good places to eat there.
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Good for you. La dolce vita.
We’re not near the peak.
Well, one can hope.
I’m going to continue to watch that CDC plot and hope for the best case scenario.
Not a mathematician, either, but I don’t know if you can flatten the curve “too much.” If you flattened the curve a lot, the number of people infected (let alone dying) would be so minimal on a population basis that life would probably go on just fine (meaning no shortages of anything).
A sensible change of plans. One of my clients was like, “Do you think it’s a bad idea for me to fly to Europe [for pleasure] in 2 wks?” Ummm…
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Singapore and Hong Kong have both flattened the curve aggressively.
Hong Kong is spending $15 billion to ameliorate the economic effects. That’s almost twice what the US has appropriated even though it has only about 2% of our population.
Has anyone yet posted articles about Taiwan being able to contain the virus pretty well? Their numbers have been staggeringly low.
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Haven’t you heard? We have superior leadership and the world’s best doctors and medical system. It’s just not necessary to spend as much. As evidence we have already cut the budget of our pandemic response team because our medical infrastructure is just so superior and prepared to respond to anything that comes at us. Have faith in the US, never bet against the US.
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We have tons of testing kits. People have said they’re the best testing kits in the world, really great kits.
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You forgot that they’re perfect kits: everybody says so!
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Taiwan sounds like Singapore and Hong Kong. They all learned from SARS.
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PERFECT, everything is PERFECT
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Well, it’s actually logarithmic, but yes, that’s what an exponential looks like on a semi-log plot (a straight line, like the one labeled “33% daily increase”).
Nobody’s curve will ever come down on a “cumulative cases” plot. But as you can clearly see, the rate of increase, which is really the important thing, has slowed greatly in several countries.
But not in the US. 
The total number of cases would likely eventually be the same, just spread out over a longer period of time. The only benefit from flattening the curve is to prevent medical facility overload, thereby reducing deaths. The rate of new infections would be smaller by flattening the curve, but not likely the total eventual cumulative cases.
But yes, I agree that there would be far less panic if the rate of new infections were to be lowered by “flattening the curve”. I guess we just have to be clear about whether we’re talking about the cumulative (total) number of cases or the rate of new cases.
Yes, that’s clear.
The rate of new cases is all that matters at this point
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