We can eliminate tumor growth in nearly all mouse xenograft models but that doesn’t mean it is also working in humans. Animal is good but without human trials it is pretty much meaningless
Of course animal testing is just one step. Though the way that spray works, it should work just as well on humans.
Whatever the outcome in human trials, this is a very interesting – I’d say exciting – development. If it pans out in humans (and I want to be optimistic about that), it might well be preferable to a vaccine. It’s also interesting to learn that ferrets have previously been used for testing drugs that act on other lung-infecting viruses, like influenza and SARS, because the response by ferrets is very similar to humans. That was news to me.
No substitute for a vaccine, since you’d have to use it several times a week, but it would be a useful tool in the meantime, perhaps especially as a prophylactic for medical personnel working with people suffering from Covid-19.
Well, maybe the antivaxxers – who won’t get a covid vaccine even when it’s widely available – would be less put off by a nasal spray, even if it means taking it several times per week (something I missed when reading the article).
I was also happy to hear that the Pfizer phase 3 vaccine trials have shown 90% effectiveness in their overall cohort so far, and few cases of mild to moderate side effects.
All encouraging news.
It sounds like Biden’s covid advisory team, at least, has “learned”: They’re endorsing a “dimmer switch” approach to covid control, as opposed to on/off/on/off. I’m happy to hear this. At last.
Next I’m hoping to hear of true engineering-level feedback control, to scientifically modulate the dimmer switch level.
There are a number of advisors on the team who are also have advocated a hard lock down like Osterholm. The “careful” scalpel version works when there are areas left in the US which wouldn’t have serious Covid problems. But we are getting close to the point where we have uncontrollable spread nearly everywhere (and hospital capacity overwhelmed (which has already started in some parts) and then only a lock down will help if we don’t give up completely and accept >1/2 million deaths soon.
We just disagree. I think that the sledgehammer approach is futile and will cost more lives than alternative, more scientifically-based engineering control-theory approaches can.
Since we’ve waited so long, though, an initial sledgehammer fix might just be necessary. Unfortunately. In that, I agree with you. But that approach has failed over longer timeframes, and has cost both lives and jobs.
“Dimmer switch” control will prove to be more effective and of greater benefit overall, in terms of health and jobs, as opposed to one or more national lockdowns.
A lot of European countries are currently starting to show that lock downs are working. Sweden has tried more towards your approach and has currently huge problems as it doesn’t work. There is no data that supports your approach
New cases per day are up enormously in Sweden in the past two months. I’ve been following that. Right now there are more than 4 times the number of new cases per day as during the peak of their first wave, which killed over 6000 (mostly elderly) in a country of 10M people.
But total deaths per capita in Sweden keep dropping below those of other nations, including France, Spain, UK, Italy, and, of course USA. And 12 other countries. The important metric is deaths per capita, and in Sweden, while this has risen from an almost-stable 1 - 2 per day to a tragic 8 -10 per day (both per million population; rolling average), the death toll is nevertheless currently dropping again. Sweden is currently 18th among nations in terms of deaths (per capita, per day, rolling average). They aren’t having “huge problems”. Just a lot of cases.
I’m not suggesting that we should follow the Swedish approach per se; but I do support a scientifically-based “dimmer switch” control approach. Lockdowns are effective, sure, but they’re only a temporary, “sledgehammer” control. In the long term there would be more cases but fewer deaths with “dimmer switch” control, and far less economic distress.
Ref: Sort by deaths/M column on COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Lockdowns are devastating, debilitating, and ineffective other than in the short term.
It’s actually only one if the metrics. I would argue that cases per capita as equally (if not even more) important as research shows more and more that many people (even with less severe disease) have significant long term covid disease which will have a tremendous strain on the society over the next decades. It is absolutely critical to not look on death numbers as the main variable but the case numbers.
Complete disagree on this as many countries (in Europe, Australia etc) have shown that lockdowns are essential to have chance to not mass infect many, many people
Lockdowns are clearly effective. Anywhere they reopen indoor restaurants, bars, and gyms, Covid comes back with a vengance.
Sweden’s total deaths per capita to date is around ten times higher than Norway’s and Finland’s. I think that’s the best figure to look at, the number of people with “long-haul” symptoms is likely proportional.
“Excess” deaths are a good reality check on those statistics.
That’s almost certainly true. The actual percentage of all cases worldwide involving these side effects would be of interest. We only have data for about 8 months, so “long haul” can’t be measured beyond that timeframe. It’s also been my understanding, perhaps incorrect, that in many cases the adverse side effects have resolved in a few months.
That’s my point. Lockdowns are only temporarily effective, not a long-term solution. They should be, as has recently been said, a “measure of last resort”. The “dimmer switch” approach is the way to go, not “on-off”.
You may well be right in your remark about the “‘careful’ scalpel” version, but I’m willing to leave it to Biden’s Covid team to work that out. I wish that the team included a nationally-recognized expert in engineering-level feedback and control, though. I think that person could add considerable insight and perspective to a science-based approach for bringing covid under control in the US.
The only long term solutions are vaccines and other medical treatments. Lockdowns are the only way to bridge short- to midterm the gap if the virus is out of control. The dimmer approach would be rather useless at this point as other countries have tried certain variations just to see the virus come back very fast.
Yes, provided enough people opt to get vaccinated to establish herd immunity and the treatments halt severe cases and deaths. So I agree that the issue is how to control the spread of the virus in the short- to medium timeframe, which I think will last until next fall.
There will be enough employers, schools, concert and sports arenas etc. which will require vaccination to work/learn/visit that either people will get vaccinated or will have problems to participate in normal life